Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AMTD IDEA Group (HKB.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.98 - $13.13$11.63
Multi-Stage$25.54 - $28.43$26.95
Blended Fair Value$19.29
Current Price$2.64
Upside630.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.040.240.240.121,389.880.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-82.36%-0.55%96.93%-99.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.43%2.47%2.59%0.94%11,699.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)187.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)184.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.5323.4514.07
Cash Retained (M)184.84184.84184.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.53-23.45-14.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)147.31161.39170.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.4266.4266.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.222.432.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.222.432.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.262.472.61
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate-12.38%-11.38%-10.38%
Fair Value$9.98$11.63$13.13
Upside / Downside278.02%340.38%397.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)187.64166.28147.35130.58115.72102.55105.63
Payout Ratio1.49%19.19%36.89%54.60%72.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.8031.9154.3771.2983.6692.2997.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate-12.38%-11.38%-10.38%
Year 1 PV (M)29.3629.7030.03
Year 2 PV (M)46.0247.0848.15
Year 3 PV (M)55.5357.4559.42
Year 4 PV (M)59.9662.7465.62
Year 5 PV (M)60.8664.4168.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,444.501,528.841,617.07
Equity Value (M)1,696.231,790.211,888.41
Shares Outstanding (M)66.4266.4266.42
Fair Value$25.54$26.95$28.43
Upside / Downside867.34%920.94%976.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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