DDM Analysis: GRBK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$139.66 - $289.67	$196.68
Multi-Stage	$100.41 - $109.79	$105.02
Blended Fair Value	$150.85
Current Price	$73.86
Upside	104.24%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	-14.09%	0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.24	0.25	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	2.28%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-1.37%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.11%	0.11%	0.18%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.61%	2.26%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	338.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	335.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	67.73	42.33	25.40
Cash Retained (M)	335.80	335.80	335.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-67.73	-42.33	-25.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)	268.06	293.46	310.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	44.20	44.20	44.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	6.06	6.64	7.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	6.06	6.64	7.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.13	6.70	7.09
WACC / Discount Rate	10.13%	10.13%	10.13%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$139.66	$196.68	$289.67
Upside / Downside	89.09%	166.29%	292.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	338.67	360.69	384.13	409.10	435.69	464.01	477.93
Payout Ratio	0.85%	18.68%	36.51%	54.34%	72.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2.88	67.37	140.24	222.30	314.44	417.61	442.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.13%	10.13%	10.13%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	60.60	61.18	61.75
Year 2 PV (M)	113.47	115.63	117.81
Year 3 PV (M)	161.78	166.43	171.16
Year 4 PV (M)	205.83	213.75	221.89
Year 5 PV (M)	245.90	257.77	270.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,650.74	3,827.07	4,010.15
Equity Value (M)	4,438.32	4,641.83	4,852.87
Shares Outstanding (M)	44.20	44.20	44.20
Fair Value	$100.41	$105.02	$109.79
Upside / Downside	35.95%	42.18%	48.65%

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Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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