DDM Analysis: ERWPF.BK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.73 - $7.96	$6.85
Multi-Stage	$14.19 - $15.68	$14.92
Blended Fair Value	$10.89
Current Price	$8.55
Upside	27.32%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	-25.20%	-5.50%	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.37	0.00	0.38	0.60	0.60	0.55	0.61
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-36.28%	-0.15%	8.39%	-8.55%	284.52%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.05%	0.00%	0.00%	8.31%	0.00%	7.49%	9.83%	7.85%	5.74%	6.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	180.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	39.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	140.45

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	36.05	22.53	13.52
Cash Retained (M)	140.45	140.45	140.45
(-) Cash Required (M)	-36.05	-22.53	-13.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	104.40	117.92	126.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	176.10	176.10	176.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.59	0.67	0.72
LTM Dividend per Share	0.23	0.23	0.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.59	0.67	0.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.82	0.90	0.95
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%	7.13%	7.13%
Growth Rate	-6.26%	-5.26%	-4.26%
Fair Value	$5.73	$6.85	$7.96
Upside / Downside	-32.93%	-19.88%	-6.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	180.25	170.77	161.79	153.28	145.22	137.58	141.71
Payout Ratio	22.08%	35.66%	49.25%	62.83%	76.42%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	39.80	60.90	79.68	96.31	110.97	123.83	131.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%	7.13%	7.13%
Growth Rate	-6.26%	-5.26%	-4.26%
Year 1 PV (M)	56.25	56.85	57.45
Year 2 PV (M)	67.97	69.43	70.90
Year 3 PV (M)	75.88	78.34	80.84
Year 4 PV (M)	80.76	84.26	87.87
Year 5 PV (M)	83.23	87.76	92.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,134.70	2,251.02	2,372.35
Equity Value (M)	2,498.79	2,627.65	2,761.91
Shares Outstanding (M)	176.10	176.10	176.10
Fair Value	$14.19	$14.92	$15.68
Upside / Downside	65.96%	74.52%	83.44%

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Erawan Hotel Growth Property Fund (ERWPF.BK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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