DDM Analysis: ELSPC.TA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.60 - $5.90	$4.63
Multi-Stage	$4.43 - $4.84	$4.63
Blended Fair Value	$4.63
Current Price	$6.39
Upside	-27.56%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	-6.70%	0.25	0.00	0.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.76	0.35
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	114.29%	-30.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.22%	0.00%	9.17%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	27.80%	8.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1.21

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.24	0.78	0.47
Cash Retained (M)	1.21	1.21	1.21
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.24	-0.78	-0.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-0.03	0.43	0.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	19.76	19.76	19.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.02	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.02	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.25	0.27	0.29
WACC / Discount Rate	9.42%	9.42%	9.42%
Growth Rate	2.29%	3.29%	4.29%
Fair Value	$3.60	$4.63	$5.90
Upside / Downside	-43.63%	-27.59%	-7.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6.21	6.41	6.62	6.84	7.07	7.30	7.52
Payout Ratio	80.53%	82.42%	84.32%	86.21%	88.11%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5.00	5.29	5.59	5.90	6.23	6.57	6.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.42%	9.42%	9.42%
Growth Rate	2.29%	3.29%	4.29%
Year 1 PV (M)	4.78	4.83	4.88
Year 2 PV (M)	4.57	4.66	4.76
Year 3 PV (M)	4.37	4.50	4.63
Year 4 PV (M)	4.18	4.34	4.51
Year 5 PV (M)	3.99	4.19	4.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)	65.73	69.01	72.41
Equity Value (M)	87.63	91.53	95.59
Shares Outstanding (M)	19.76	19.76	19.76
Fair Value	$4.43	$4.63	$4.84
Upside / Downside	-30.61%	-27.52%	-24.31%

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Elspec Engineering Ltd (ELSPC.TA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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