Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited (BTS-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.99 - $3.27$2.56
Multi-Stage$6.22 - $6.87$6.54
Blended Fair Value$4.55
Current Price$3.06
Upside48.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.130.260.260.370.350.270.250.380.48
YoY Growth---100.00%-48.48%0.03%-31.09%7.50%30.70%4.68%-32.55%-21.25%25.37%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.01%3.45%3.01%3.99%3.07%2.20%2.88%4.43%4.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,828.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,825.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)565.61353.50212.10
Cash Retained (M)2,825.382,825.382,825.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-565.61-353.50-212.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,259.772,471.882,613.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,815.7015,815.7015,815.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate5.06%5.06%5.06%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.99$2.56$3.27
Upside / Downside-35.09%-16.44%6.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,828.032,799.752,771.752,744.032,716.592,689.432,770.11
Payout Ratio0.09%18.07%36.06%54.04%72.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.65506.05999.391,482.811,956.462,420.482,562.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.06%5.06%5.06%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)476.82481.69486.56
Year 2 PV (M)887.28905.48923.86
Year 3 PV (M)1,240.431,278.791,317.94
Year 4 PV (M)1,542.131,606.041,671.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,797.701,891.311,988.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,482.4597,298.22102,312.55
Equity Value (M)98,426.81103,461.53108,701.61
Shares Outstanding (M)15,815.7015,815.7015,815.70
Fair Value$6.22$6.54$6.87
Upside / Downside103.38%113.78%124.61%

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