DDM Analysis: BTE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.12 - $54.73	$47.86
Multi-Stage	$6.92 - $7.57	$7.24
Blended Fair Value	$27.55
Current Price	$2.43
Upside	1,033.85%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	-13.50%	0.09	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	91.86%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-64.24%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.88%	0.96%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	214.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	69.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	145.11

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	42.93	26.83	16.10
Cash Retained (M)	145.11	145.11	145.11
(-) Cash Required (M)	-42.93	-26.83	-16.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)	102.19	118.29	129.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	779.92	779.92	779.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.22	0.24	0.25
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$15.12	$47.86	$54.73
Upside / Downside	522.37%	1,869.68%	2,152.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	214.63	228.58	243.44	259.26	276.12	294.06	302.88
Payout Ratio	32.39%	43.91%	55.43%	66.96%	78.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	69.52	100.37	134.95	173.59	216.69	264.66	280.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	92.89	93.78	94.66
Year 2 PV (M)	115.59	117.79	120.01
Year 3 PV (M)	137.61	141.56	145.59
Year 4 PV (M)	158.98	165.09	171.38
Year 5 PV (M)	179.70	188.38	197.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,713.67	4,941.34	5,177.73
Equity Value (M)	5,398.44	5,647.94	5,906.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	779.92	779.92	779.92
Fair Value	$6.92	$7.24	$7.57
Upside / Downside	184.85%	198.01%	211.67%

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Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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