DDM Analysis: ASELS.IS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$80.65 - $170.34	$114.32
Multi-Stage	$57.62 - $63.01	$60.26
Blended Fair Value	$87.29
Current Price	$150.80
Upside	-42.11%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-0.51%	21.10%	0.04	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-22.62%	43.28%	47.99%	-59.00%	44.94%	105.67%	12.05%	79.76%	-35.38%	160.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.03%	0.09%	0.13%	0.19%	0.74%	0.65%	0.35%	0.21%	0.22%	0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	19,709.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	169.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)	19,539.45

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,941.82	2,463.64	1,478.18
Cash Retained (M)	19,539.45	19,539.45	19,539.45
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,941.82	-2,463.64	-1,478.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)	15,597.63	17,075.81	18,061.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,560.00	4,560.00	4,560.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.42	3.74	3.96
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.42	3.74	3.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.46	3.78	4.00
WACC / Discount Rate	10.02%	10.02%	10.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$80.65	$114.32	$170.34
Upside / Downside	-46.52%	-24.19%	12.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	19,709.09	20,990.18	22,354.54	23,807.59	25,355.08	27,003.16	27,813.25
Payout Ratio	0.86%	18.69%	36.52%	54.34%	72.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	169.64	3,922.77	8,163.08	12,938.06	18,299.30	24,302.84	25,727.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.02%	10.02%	10.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,531.92	3,565.40	3,598.88
Year 2 PV (M)	6,617.47	6,743.51	6,870.75
Year 3 PV (M)	9,443.34	9,714.43	9,990.65
Year 4 PV (M)	12,025.69	12,488.16	12,963.85
Year 5 PV (M)	14,379.75	15,074.29	15,795.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)	216,748.79	227,217.84	238,087.56
Equity Value (M)	262,746.96	274,803.64	287,307.11
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,560.00	4,560.00	4,560.00
Fair Value	$57.62	$60.26	$63.01
Upside / Downside	-61.79%	-60.04%	-58.22%

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Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi (ASELS.IS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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