DDM Analysis: ALFA.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.83 - $9.47	$5.73
Multi-Stage	$2.69 - $2.93	$2.81
Blended Fair Value	$4.27
Current Price	$2.25
Upside	89.74%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.01	0.07	0.08	0.11	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.20	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-80.71%	-12.44%	-31.19%	-26.08%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	5,974.30%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.59%	4.72%	4.55%	5.77%	11.24%	0.00%	0.00%	3.76%	0.08%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	51.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	13.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	37.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.34	6.46	3.88
Cash Retained (M)	37.90	37.90	37.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.34	-6.46	-3.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)	27.56	31.44	34.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	298.07	298.07	298.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.11	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.11	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.15	0.16
WACC / Discount Rate	9.32%	9.32%	9.32%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$3.83	$5.73	$9.47
Upside / Downside	70.29%	154.68%	321.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	51.70	55.06	58.64	62.45	66.51	70.83	72.96
Payout Ratio	26.69%	39.35%	52.02%	64.68%	77.34%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	13.80	21.67	30.50	40.39	51.44	63.75	67.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.32%	9.32%	9.32%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	19.63	19.82	20.01
Year 2 PV (M)	25.05	25.52	26.00
Year 3 PV (M)	30.05	30.92	31.79
Year 4 PV (M)	34.68	36.01	37.39
Year 5 PV (M)	38.95	40.83	42.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)	652.31	683.81	716.53
Equity Value (M)	800.67	836.92	874.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	298.07	298.07	298.07
Fair Value	$2.69	$2.81	$2.93
Upside / Downside	19.39%	24.79%	30.40%

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Alfa Financial Software Holdings PLC (ALFA.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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