DDM Analysis: AKZA.AS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$30.48 - $52.46	$39.96
Multi-Stage	$57.91 - $63.51	$60.66
Blended Fair Value	$50.31
Current Price	$59.40
Upside	-15.30%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-23.01%	3.24%	2.24	2.00	2.04	2.12	2.13	8.29	3.71	6.90	1.96	1.64
YoY Growth	-	-	12.24%	-2.00%	-3.85%	-0.55%	-74.28%	123.74%	-46.28%	252.38%	19.57%	0.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.96%	2.91%	2.83%	2.71%	2.24%	13.82%	4.64%	7.99%	2.24%	2.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	415.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	397.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	18.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	83.00	51.88	31.13
Cash Retained (M)	18.00	18.00	18.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-83.00	-51.88	-31.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-65.00	-33.88	-13.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	171.60	171.60	171.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.38	-0.20	-0.08
LTM Dividend per Share	2.31	2.31	2.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.38	-0.20	-0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.93	2.12	2.24
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	0.13%	1.13%	2.13%
Fair Value	$30.48	$39.96	$52.46
Upside / Downside	-48.68%	-32.72%	-11.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	415.00	419.69	424.44	429.24	434.10	439.01	452.18
Payout Ratio	95.66%	94.53%	93.40%	92.27%	91.13%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	397.00	396.74	396.42	396.04	395.61	395.11	418.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	0.13%	1.13%	2.13%
Year 1 PV (M)	368.89	372.57	376.26
Year 2 PV (M)	342.72	349.60	356.54
Year 3 PV (M)	318.36	327.99	337.82
Year 4 PV (M)	295.68	307.67	320.02
Year 5 PV (M)	274.58	288.57	303.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,337.87	8,762.62	9,204.50
Equity Value (M)	9,938.10	10,409.02	10,898.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	171.60	171.60	171.60
Fair Value	$57.91	$60.66	$63.51
Upside / Downside	-2.50%	2.12%	6.92%

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Akzo Nobel N.V. (AKZA.AS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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