DDM Analysis: AALI.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11,097.38 - $20,883.73	$15,072.00
Multi-Stage	$18,498.96 - $20,325.33	$19,394.63
Blended Fair Value	$17,233.32
Current Price	$8,175.00
Upside	110.81%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.14%	-6.55%	248.97	400.96	443.95	254.97	90.99	223.98	433.96	517.95	98.99	386.14
YoY Growth	-	-	-37.91%	-9.68%	74.12%	180.22%	-59.38%	-48.39%	-16.22%	423.23%	-74.36%	-21.20%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.45%	5.79%	5.48%	2.03%	0.91%	4.15%	3.85%	3.84%	0.66%	2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,416,511.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	515,764.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	900,747.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	283,302.20	177,063.88	106,238.33
Cash Retained (M)	900,747.00	900,747.00	900,747.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-283,302.20	-177,063.88	-106,238.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)	617,444.80	723,683.13	794,508.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,924.69	1,924.69	1,924.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share	320.80	376.00	412.80
LTM Dividend per Share	267.97	267.97	267.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share	320.80	376.00	412.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend	588.78	643.97	680.77
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	0.95%	1.95%	2.95%
Fair Value	$11,097.38	$15,072.00	$20,883.73
Upside / Downside	35.75%	84.37%	155.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,416,511.00	1,444,164.13	1,472,357.11	1,501,100.47	1,530,404.96	1,560,281.53	1,607,089.98
Payout Ratio	36.41%	47.13%	57.85%	68.56%	79.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	515,764.00	680,615.74	851,707.39	1,029,219.76	1,213,338.33	1,404,253.38	1,486,558.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	0.95%	1.95%	2.95%
Year 1 PV (M)	633,948.81	640,228.50	646,508.19
Year 2 PV (M)	738,915.56	753,626.99	768,483.42
Year 3 PV (M)	831,696.19	856,657.36	882,113.04
Year 4 PV (M)	913,252.17	949,978.92	987,802.42
Year 5 PV (M)	984,479.03	1,034,214.30	1,085,939.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	31,502,426.42	33,093,909.56	34,749,073.11
Equity Value (M)	35,604,718.17	37,328,615.63	39,119,919.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,924.69	1,924.69	1,924.69
Fair Value	$18,498.96	$19,394.63	$20,325.33
Upside / Downside	126.29%	137.24%	148.63%

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PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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