DDM Analysis: 81299.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.74 - $17.35	$13.71
Multi-Stage	$14.83 - $16.25	$15.52
Blended Fair Value	$14.62
Current Price	$8.97
Upside	62.98%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.31%	12.79%	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.20	0.18	0.18	0.13	0.13	0.10	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	0.91%	1.45%	4.78%	8.64%	1.01%	35.13%	5.52%	22.36%	36.54%	18.86%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.91%	2.49%	1.86%	1.95%	1.48%	1.71%	1.60%	1.55%	1.68%	1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	10,884.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,717.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,167.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,176.80	1,360.50	816.30
Cash Retained (M)	6,167.00	6,167.00	6,167.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,176.80	-1,360.50	-816.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,990.20	4,806.50	5,350.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	11,057.75	11,057.75	11,057.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.36	0.43	0.48
LTM Dividend per Share	0.43	0.43	0.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.36	0.43	0.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.79	0.86	0.91
WACC / Discount Rate	8.47%	8.47%	8.47%
Growth Rate	1.06%	2.06%	3.06%
Fair Value	$10.74	$13.71	$17.35
Upside / Downside	19.73%	52.89%	93.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	10,884.00	11,108.57	11,337.78	11,571.71	11,810.48	12,054.17	12,415.79
Payout Ratio	43.34%	52.67%	62.00%	71.34%	80.67%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,717.00	5,851.00	7,029.80	8,254.74	9,527.25	10,848.75	11,484.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.47%	8.47%	8.47%
Growth Rate	1.06%	2.06%	3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,341.13	5,393.97	5,446.82
Year 2 PV (M)	5,857.97	5,974.47	6,092.12
Year 3 PV (M)	6,279.29	6,467.54	6,659.51
Year 4 PV (M)	6,615.71	6,881.47	7,155.15
Year 5 PV (M)	6,876.88	7,223.90	7,584.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)	133,016.01	139,728.36	146,709.00
Equity Value (M)	163,986.99	171,669.72	179,647.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	11,057.75	11,057.75	11,057.75
Fair Value	$14.83	$15.52	$16.25
Upside / Downside	65.33%	73.08%	81.12%

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NIC	Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.	0.99%	$1.19	12.58%
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RRC	Range Resources Corporation	0.99%	$0.35	14.60%
WLFC	Willis Lease Finance Corporation	0.99%	$1.32	7.58%
WOR	Worthington Industries, Inc.	0.99%	$0.52	23.95%
CNXN	PC Connection, Inc.	0.98%	$0.56	16.89%
CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	0.97%	$5.78	29.40%
CNK	Cinemark Holdings, Inc.	0.97%	$0.23	18.28%
ECL	Ecolab Inc.	0.97%	$2.54	36.57%
EVR	Evercore Inc.	0.97%	$3.41	27.02%
LSBK	Lake Shore Bancorp, Inc.	0.96%	$0.14	24.34%
0ITL.L	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	0.95%	$2.42	39.43%
0IZI.L	W.W. Grainger, Inc.	0.95%	$9.52	26.47%
0L5V.L	The Sherwin-Williams Company	0.95%	$3.11	30.09%
0R2S.L	Stryker Corporation	0.95%	$3.28	43.09%
RRX	Regal Rexnord Corporation	0.95%	$1.39	36.07%
WT	WisdomTree, Inc.	0.95%	$0.12	18.12%
J	Jacobs Solutions Inc.	0.94%	$1.27	53.80%
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	0.94%	$1.84	34.81%
TCBS	Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.	0.94%	$0.17	19.22%
IMKTA	Ingles Markets, Incorporated	0.93%	$0.65	14.68%
ODC	Oil-Dri Corporation of America	0.93%	$0.45	12.28%
PENG	Penguin Solutions, Inc.	0.93%	$0.19	40.17%
SSBK	Southern States Bancshares, Inc.	0.93%	$0.34	9.19%
DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	0.92%	$0.63	8.94%
HIFS	Hingham Institution for Savings	0.92%	$2.49	12.15%
RL	Ralph Lauren Corporation	0.92%	$3.34	24.37%
OPY	Oppenheimer Holdings Inc.	0.91%	$0.66	8.90%
BGC	BGC Group, Inc	0.90%	$0.08	23.56%
CDRE	Cadre Holdings, Inc.	0.90%	$0.37	33.35%
MBNKP	Medallion Bank	0.90%	$0.23	12.50%
JBHT	J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.	0.89%	$1.75	30.14%
NYT	The New York Times Company	0.89%	$0.62	30.32%
RMD	ResMed Inc.	0.89%	$2.18	22.31%
VBFC	Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp.	0.89%	$0.72	15.35%
0I14.L	Cognex Corporation	0.88%	$0.32	49.16%
AR	Antero Resources Corporation	0.88%	$0.30	17.15%
LDOS	Leidos Holdings, Inc.	0.88%	$1.61	14.88%
LMAT	LeMaitre Vascular, Inc.	0.88%	$0.70	32.20%
NNI	Nelnet, Inc.	0.88%	$1.14	9.52%
PFSI	PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.	0.88%	$1.16	12.49%
SMBK	SmartFinancial, Inc.	0.88%	$0.32	11.76%
BYD	Boyd Gaming Corporation	0.87%	$0.75	3.22%
ROST	Ross Stores, Inc.	0.87%	$1.59	24.85%
BBSI	Barrett Business Services, Inc.	0.86%	$0.31	15.02%
BCO	The Brink's Company	0.86%	$1.00	24.81%
HXL	Hexcel Corporation	0.86%	$0.66	77.18%

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Aia-r (81299.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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