Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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KEDE Numerical Control Co., Ltd. (688305.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.35 - $10.47$8.88
Multi-Stage$11.14 - $12.24$11.68
Blended Fair Value$10.28
Current Price$65.68
Upside-84.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.230.000.000.010.010.000.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--29,669.86%-77.31%-54.83%40.40%0.00%-100.00%253.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.38%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)106.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.3115.209.12
Cash Retained (M)106.34106.34106.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.31-15.20-9.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.0391.1497.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)111.65111.65111.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.820.87
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.820.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.62%9.62%9.62%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.35$8.88$10.47
Upside / Downside-88.82%-86.48%-84.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121.56120.35119.14117.95116.77115.61119.07
Payout Ratio12.52%28.02%43.51%59.01%74.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.2233.7251.8469.6087.00104.05110.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.62%9.62%9.62%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)30.4530.7631.07
Year 2 PV (M)42.2843.1444.02
Year 3 PV (M)51.2552.8454.46
Year 4 PV (M)57.8560.2562.72
Year 5 PV (M)62.4865.7369.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)999.001,051.031,105.19
Equity Value (M)1,243.311,303.751,366.58
Shares Outstanding (M)111.65111.65111.65
Fair Value$11.14$11.68$12.24
Upside / Downside-83.05%-82.22%-81.36%

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