DDM Analysis: 688285.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.71 - $0.96	$0.84
Multi-Stage	$1.33 - $1.47	$1.40
Blended Fair Value	$1.12
Current Price	$8.75
Upside	-87.20%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-12.71%	0.00%	0.04	0.08	0.09	0.04	0.37	0.08	0.04	0.45	0.06	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-45.18%	-19.15%	147.51%	-89.65%	346.52%	109.77%	-91.33%	665.58%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.56%	1.02%	1.06%	0.43%	3.45%	0.77%	0.37%	4.25%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	57.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	45.92

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.58	7.24	4.34
Cash Retained (M)	45.92	45.92	45.92
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.58	-7.24	-4.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)	34.33	38.68	41.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	376.25	376.25	376.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.10	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.10	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.12	0.13	0.14
WACC / Discount Rate	9.32%	9.32%	9.32%
Growth Rate	-6.76%	-5.76%	-4.76%
Fair Value	$0.71	$0.84	$0.96
Upside / Downside	-91.84%	-90.38%	-88.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	57.92	54.58	51.44	48.47	45.68	43.05	44.34
Payout Ratio	20.73%	34.58%	48.44%	62.29%	76.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12.00	18.88	24.91	30.19	34.78	38.74	41.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.32%	9.32%	9.32%
Growth Rate	-6.76%	-5.76%	-4.76%
Year 1 PV (M)	17.08	17.27	17.45
Year 2 PV (M)	20.41	20.85	21.29
Year 3 PV (M)	22.39	23.11	23.86
Year 4 PV (M)	23.34	24.36	25.41
Year 5 PV (M)	23.53	24.82	26.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)	394.31	415.91	438.45
Equity Value (M)	501.05	526.31	552.62
Shares Outstanding (M)	376.25	376.25	376.25
Fair Value	$1.33	$1.40	$1.47
Upside / Downside	-84.78%	-84.01%	-83.21%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

China Railway High-speed Electrification Equipment Corporation Limited (688285.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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