DDM Analysis: 688012.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$60.12 - $132.87	$86.59
Multi-Stage	$42.29 - $46.25	$44.23
Blended Fair Value	$65.41
Current Price	$298.99
Upside	-78.12%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	195.62%	0.00%	0.32	0.22	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	45.61%	4,069.38%	0.00%	-100.00%	-70.61%	-92.78%	-14.88%	3.37%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.17%	0.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,913.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	13.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,899.94

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	382.78	239.24	143.54
Cash Retained (M)	1,899.94	1,899.94	1,899.94
(-) Cash Required (M)	-382.78	-239.24	-143.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,517.16	1,660.71	1,756.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	627.29	627.29	627.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.42	2.65	2.80
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.42	2.65	2.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.44	2.67	2.82
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$60.12	$86.59	$132.87
Upside / Downside	-79.89%	-71.04%	-55.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,913.89	2,038.29	2,170.78	2,311.88	2,462.15	2,622.19	2,700.86
Payout Ratio	0.73%	18.58%	36.44%	54.29%	72.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	13.95	378.78	790.97	1,255.15	1,776.34	2,359.97	2,498.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	341.78	345.02	348.26
Year 2 PV (M)	644.01	656.28	668.66
Year 3 PV (M)	922.14	948.61	975.58
Year 4 PV (M)	1,177.58	1,222.87	1,269.45
Year 5 PV (M)	1,411.68	1,479.87	1,550.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	22,030.57	23,094.65	24,199.46
Equity Value (M)	26,527.76	27,747.29	29,012.07
Shares Outstanding (M)	627.29	627.29	627.29
Fair Value	$42.29	$44.23	$46.25
Upside / Downside	-85.86%	-85.21%	-84.53%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China (688012.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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