Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang HangKe Technology Incorporated Company (688006.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.15 - $22.42$14.62
Multi-Stage$44.41 - $49.06$46.69
Blended Fair Value$30.65
Current Price$36.58
Upside-16.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.450.330.150.190.150.000.080.070.070.00
YoY Growth--36.36%114.87%-17.43%27.27%0.00%-100.00%12.43%-5.15%22,884.91%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.48%1.48%0.48%0.46%0.33%0.00%0.20%0.17%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)336.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)136.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)199.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.2142.0125.20
Cash Retained (M)199.63199.63199.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.21-42.01-25.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)132.42157.62174.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)605.09605.09605.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.260.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.260.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate2.29%2.29%2.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.15$14.62$22.42
Upside / Downside-72.26%-60.04%-38.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)336.06332.70329.37326.08322.82319.59329.18
Payout Ratio40.60%50.48%60.36%70.24%80.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)136.43167.94198.80229.03258.64287.63304.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.29%2.29%2.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)162.52164.18165.84
Year 2 PV (M)186.18190.00193.85
Year 3 PV (M)207.57213.99220.54
Year 4 PV (M)226.83236.23245.92
Year 5 PV (M)244.12256.83270.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,842.6027,188.2928,589.45
Equity Value (M)26,869.8228,249.5129,685.67
Shares Outstanding (M)605.09605.09605.09
Fair Value$44.41$46.69$49.06
Upside / Downside21.39%27.63%34.12%

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