Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MegaChips Corporation (6875.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,645.96 - $31,927.72$14,401.82
Multi-Stage$3,739.35 - $4,079.92$3,906.56
Blended Fair Value$9,154.19
Current Price$7,430.00
Upside23.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS40.08%9.69%118.42102.44102.31103.1521.9221.9643.7843.5243.1345.00
YoY Growth--15.60%0.13%-0.81%370.53%-0.16%-49.85%0.60%0.91%-4.18%-4.16%
Dividend Yield--2.22%2.50%2.75%3.27%0.69%1.05%3.10%1.47%1.55%3.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,704.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,386.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)317.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)540.82338.01202.81
Cash Retained (M)317.87317.87317.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-540.82-338.01-202.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)-222.94-20.14115.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.8416.8416.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share-13.24-1.206.83
LTM Dividend per Share141.67141.67141.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share-13.24-1.206.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend128.43140.47148.50
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,645.96$14,401.82$31,927.72
Upside / Downside-10.55%93.83%329.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,704.082,879.843,067.033,266.393,478.703,704.823,815.96
Payout Ratio88.24%88.60%88.95%89.30%89.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,386.202,551.422,728.032,916.813,118.623,334.343,529.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,350.282,372.552,394.83
Year 2 PV (M)2,314.862,358.952,403.45
Year 3 PV (M)2,279.932,345.382,412.07
Year 4 PV (M)2,245.502,331.862,420.68
Year 5 PV (M)2,211.562,318.382,429.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,581.5354,072.9456,659.70
Equity Value (M)62,983.6665,800.0668,720.02
Shares Outstanding (M)16.8416.8416.84
Fair Value$3,739.35$3,906.56$4,079.92
Upside / Downside-49.67%-47.42%-45.09%

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