DDM Analysis: 6269.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$48.13 - $84.26	$63.53
Multi-Stage	$45.56 - $49.80	$47.64
Blended Fair Value	$55.59
Current Price	$42.95
Upside	29.42%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-62.50%	5.25%	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.28	0.37	44.43	42.35	32.02	29.94	27.86
YoY Growth	-	-	224,780.00%	-47.37%	-99.90%	-24.83%	-99.17%	4.91%	32.25%	6.95%	7.47%	14,005.53%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.20%	0.00%	0.00%	2.66%	1.81%	365.64%	144.72%	127.97%	140.96%	190.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	241.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	58.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)	183.43

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	48.40	30.25	18.15
Cash Retained (M)	183.43	183.43	183.43
(-) Cash Required (M)	-48.40	-30.25	-18.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	135.03	153.18	165.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	68.27	68.27	68.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.98	2.24	2.42
LTM Dividend per Share	0.86	0.86	0.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.98	2.24	2.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.84	3.10	3.28
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	3.88%	4.88%	5.88%
Fair Value	$48.13	$63.53	$84.26
Upside / Downside	12.07%	47.92%	96.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	241.99	253.79	266.17	279.15	292.77	307.05	316.26
Payout Ratio	24.20%	37.36%	50.52%	63.68%	76.84%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	58.56	94.82	134.47	177.76	224.96	276.34	292.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	3.88%	4.88%	5.88%
Year 1 PV (M)	85.38	86.20	87.02
Year 2 PV (M)	109.03	111.14	113.27
Year 3 PV (M)	129.78	133.57	137.42
Year 4 PV (M)	147.89	153.67	159.61
Year 5 PV (M)	163.58	171.61	179.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,474.95	2,596.40	2,722.57
Equity Value (M)	3,110.62	3,252.58	3,399.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	68.27	68.27	68.27
Fair Value	$45.56	$47.64	$49.80
Upside / Downside	6.08%	10.92%	15.95%

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Financial Statements

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MODEC, Inc. (6269.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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