Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hygeia Healthcare Holdings Co., Limited (6078.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.18 - $21.22$17.52
Multi-Stage$26.68 - $29.40$28.01
Blended Fair Value$22.77
Current Price$13.92
Upside63.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.150.000.120.110.000.030.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%-100.00%5.83%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.47%0.00%0.30%0.27%0.00%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,070.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)94.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)976.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)214.12133.8280.29
Cash Retained (M)976.11976.11976.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-214.12-133.82-80.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)761.99842.28895.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)627.03627.03627.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.221.341.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.221.341.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.371.491.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.18$17.52$21.22
Upside / Downside1.84%25.86%52.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,070.591,059.881,049.281,038.791,028.401,018.121,048.66
Payout Ratio8.82%25.06%41.29%57.53%73.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)94.48265.61433.30597.61758.60916.30970.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)244.71247.21249.71
Year 2 PV (M)367.81375.35382.97
Year 3 PV (M)467.38481.83496.58
Year 4 PV (M)546.61569.26592.62
Year 5 PV (M)608.31639.98672.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,496.6515,251.5216,037.52
Equity Value (M)16,731.4617,565.1618,432.36
Shares Outstanding (M)627.03627.03627.03
Fair Value$26.68$28.01$29.40
Upside / Downside91.69%101.24%111.18%

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