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Definitive Analysis

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Wuxi Zhenhua Auto Parts Co., Ltd. (605319.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$133.36 - $326.08$305.59
Multi-Stage$47.54 - $52.03$49.74
Blended Fair Value$177.66
Current Price$25.60
Upside594.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS51.42%0.00%0.630.170.230.050.080.081.060.400.010.00
YoY Growth--268.57%-26.86%408.79%-45.34%6.20%-92.51%164.23%3,943.76%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.00%0.70%1.54%0.32%0.52%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)445.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)168.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)277.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.1855.7433.44
Cash Retained (M)277.25277.25277.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.18-55.74-33.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)188.07221.51243.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)271.97271.97271.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.810.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.810.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.431.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$133.36$305.59$326.08
Upside / Downside420.96%1,093.70%1,173.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)445.92474.91505.78538.65573.67610.95629.28
Payout Ratio37.82%48.26%58.69%69.13%79.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)168.67229.19296.87372.37456.44549.86582.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)213.11215.13217.15
Year 2 PV (M)256.66261.55266.48
Year 3 PV (M)299.35307.94316.70
Year 4 PV (M)341.18354.30367.79
Year 5 PV (M)382.16400.62419.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,435.9611,988.3212,561.82
Equity Value (M)12,928.4213,527.8614,149.73
Shares Outstanding (M)271.97271.97271.97
Fair Value$47.54$49.74$52.03
Upside / Downside85.69%94.30%103.23%

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