Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. (603915.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.11 - $79.63$74.59
Multi-Stage$40.11 - $44.19$42.11
Blended Fair Value$58.35
Current Price$17.03
Upside242.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.330.200.220.180.140.000.000.000.000.08
YoY Growth--59.02%-5.90%20.79%25.64%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.88%1.47%1.11%0.86%0.54%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)270.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)157.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.0633.7920.27
Cash Retained (M)112.79112.79112.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.06-33.79-20.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.7379.0092.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)645.68645.68645.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate0.81%1.81%2.81%
Fair Value$48.11$74.59$79.63
Upside / Downside182.50%338.00%367.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)270.32275.21280.19285.27290.43295.69304.56
Payout Ratio58.27%64.62%70.96%77.31%83.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)157.53177.84198.84220.54242.96266.12281.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate0.81%1.81%2.81%
Year 1 PV (M)173.47175.19176.91
Year 2 PV (M)189.19192.96196.77
Year 3 PV (M)204.68210.83217.10
Year 4 PV (M)219.94228.80237.92
Year 5 PV (M)234.99246.88259.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,876.3726,134.9127,443.88
Equity Value (M)25,898.6427,189.5728,531.83
Shares Outstanding (M)645.68645.68645.68
Fair Value$40.11$42.11$44.19
Upside / Downside135.53%147.27%159.48%

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