Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance Co., Ltd. (603868.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.62 - $31.86$22.73
Multi-Stage$16.65 - $18.20$17.41
Blended Fair Value$20.07
Current Price$35.46
Upside-43.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.01%15.80%2.322.011.011.011.011.511.511.011.010.51
YoY Growth--15.47%100.00%0.00%0.00%-33.33%0.00%50.00%0.00%98.43%-5.40%
Dividend Yield--6.31%4.10%1.22%2.00%2.22%4.22%3.31%1.80%2.13%1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)450.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)221.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)229.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.0856.3033.78
Cash Retained (M)229.04229.04229.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.08-56.30-33.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)138.96172.74195.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.67432.67432.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.400.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.400.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate3.62%4.62%5.62%
Fair Value$16.62$22.73$31.86
Upside / Downside-53.13%-35.89%-10.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)450.38471.17492.93515.70539.51564.43581.36
Payout Ratio49.15%57.32%65.49%73.66%81.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)221.34270.06322.81379.85441.48507.99537.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate3.62%4.62%5.62%
Year 1 PV (M)245.82248.19250.57
Year 2 PV (M)267.46272.65277.89
Year 3 PV (M)286.48294.86303.39
Year 4 PV (M)303.08314.95327.16
Year 5 PV (M)317.44333.05349.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,784.196,068.746,364.38
Equity Value (M)7,204.487,532.457,872.67
Shares Outstanding (M)432.67432.67432.67
Fair Value$16.65$17.41$18.20
Upside / Downside-53.04%-50.90%-48.69%

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