Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nancal Technology Co.,Ltd (603859.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$164.91 - $194.29$182.07
Multi-Stage$113.10 - $124.11$118.50
Blended Fair Value$150.29
Current Price$48.11
Upside212.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.74%2.02%0.080.010.080.020.050.030.030.090.000.07
YoY Growth--509.23%-81.68%267.48%-54.99%33.31%24.00%-70.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.26%0.05%0.24%0.10%0.21%0.18%0.15%0.62%0.00%0.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)239.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.8429.9017.94
Cash Retained (M)145.83145.83145.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.84-29.90-17.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.99115.93127.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)244.84244.84244.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.470.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.470.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate2.16%2.16%2.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$164.91$182.07$194.29
Upside / Downside242.77%278.46%303.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)239.19254.73271.29288.93307.71327.71337.54
Payout Ratio39.03%49.23%59.42%69.61%79.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.36125.40161.20201.13245.57294.94312.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.16%2.16%2.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)121.59122.74123.90
Year 2 PV (M)151.57154.45157.37
Year 3 PV (M)183.37188.64194.00
Year 4 PV (M)217.10225.44234.03
Year 5 PV (M)252.83265.04277.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,764.6028,057.3429,399.55
Equity Value (M)27,691.0529,013.6630,386.57
Shares Outstanding (M)244.84244.84244.84
Fair Value$113.10$118.50$124.11
Upside / Downside135.09%146.32%157.97%

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