Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Freely Communication Co., Ltd. (603602.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.52 - $29.79$27.92
Multi-Stage$5.24 - $5.73$5.48
Blended Fair Value$16.70
Current Price$14.80
Upside12.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.95%10.84%0.120.070.050.050.040.070.070.010.060.30
YoY Growth--71.47%58.18%-1.32%10.45%-40.52%2.09%430.55%-79.04%-79.82%594.71%
Dividend Yield--0.73%0.50%0.33%0.33%0.34%0.37%0.28%0.06%0.71%3.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.653.532.12
Cash Retained (M)3.663.663.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.65-3.53-2.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.990.131.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)188.67188.67188.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.04%6.04%6.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.52$27.92$29.79
Upside / Downside58.91%88.64%101.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28.2630.1032.0634.1436.3638.7239.89
Payout Ratio87.04%87.64%88.23%88.82%89.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.6026.3828.2830.3232.5134.8536.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.04%6.04%6.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)24.6424.8825.11
Year 2 PV (M)24.6825.1525.63
Year 3 PV (M)24.7225.4326.16
Year 4 PV (M)24.7625.7126.69
Year 5 PV (M)24.8026.0027.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)864.26906.00949.34
Equity Value (M)987.871,033.181,080.17
Shares Outstanding (M)188.67188.67188.67
Fair Value$5.24$5.48$5.73
Upside / Downside-64.62%-63.00%-61.32%

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