DDM Analysis: 603315.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.02 - $12.94	$6.50
Multi-Stage	$2.68 - $2.92	$2.80
Blended Fair Value	$4.65
Current Price	$13.34
Upside	-65.15%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	69.60%	-2.56%	0.15	0.08	0.07	0.15	0.16	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.06	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	77.01%	26.72%	-55.19%	-9.09%	1,435.47%	0.00%	-72.51%	-40.00%	-22.35%	-57.07%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.10%	0.63%	0.45%	0.61%	1.25%	0.10%	0.07%	0.31%	0.27%	0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	47.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	20.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)	26.65

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.47	5.92	3.55
Cash Retained (M)	26.65	26.65	26.65
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.47	-5.92	-3.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17.18	20.73	23.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	314.75	314.75	314.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.12	0.13	0.14
WACC / Discount Rate	8.66%	8.66%	8.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$4.02	$6.50	$12.94
Upside / Downside	-69.84%	-51.26%	-3.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	47.36	50.43	53.71	57.20	60.92	64.88	66.83
Payout Ratio	43.72%	52.98%	62.23%	71.49%	80.74%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	20.71	26.72	33.43	40.89	49.19	58.39	61.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.66%	8.66%	8.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	24.36	24.59	24.82
Year 2 PV (M)	27.78	28.31	28.85
Year 3 PV (M)	30.99	31.88	32.79
Year 4 PV (M)	33.98	35.29	36.64
Year 5 PV (M)	36.78	38.56	40.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)	688.32	721.57	756.09
Equity Value (M)	842.22	880.20	919.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	314.75	314.75	314.75
Fair Value	$2.68	$2.80	$2.92
Upside / Downside	-79.94%	-79.04%	-78.10%

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Liaoning Fu-An Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (603315.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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