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Definitive Analysis

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Changzhou Tenglong AutoPartsCo.,Ltd. (603158.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.56 - $62.50$58.57
Multi-Stage$9.27 - $10.14$9.69
Blended Fair Value$34.13
Current Price$10.88
Upside213.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.88%15.85%0.220.150.130.160.110.090.160.070.060.00
YoY Growth--45.89%10.90%-16.98%51.61%16.57%-43.56%122.59%30.96%2,021.55%-94.74%
Dividend Yield--2.30%1.77%1.72%2.16%1.23%1.03%1.78%0.80%0.39%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)98.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.2419.5311.72
Cash Retained (M)57.3357.3357.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.24-19.53-11.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.0937.8045.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)497.05497.05497.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.56$58.57$62.50
Upside / Downside134.96%438.37%474.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.21166.37177.18188.70200.97214.03220.45
Payout Ratio63.30%68.64%73.98%79.32%84.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)98.89114.20131.08149.68170.14192.63203.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)106.18107.19108.20
Year 2 PV (M)113.33115.49117.67
Year 3 PV (M)120.33123.78127.30
Year 4 PV (M)127.17132.07137.10
Year 5 PV (M)133.88140.35147.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,006.224,199.724,400.62
Equity Value (M)4,607.114,818.595,037.94
Shares Outstanding (M)497.05497.05497.05
Fair Value$9.27$9.69$10.14
Upside / Downside-14.81%-10.90%-6.84%

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