Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Chuangli Group Co., Ltd. (603012.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.87 - $49.41$20.58
Multi-Stage$7.00 - $7.67$7.33
Blended Fair Value$13.95
Current Price$5.88
Upside137.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.76%-1.22%0.200.140.110.130.110.120.070.040.050.06
YoY Growth--45.63%18.06%-10.26%13.55%-9.09%68.92%69.68%-8.68%-23.65%-72.21%
Dividend Yield--3.38%2.44%1.99%2.21%1.94%1.98%0.81%0.63%0.48%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)159.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)87.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.8719.9211.95
Cash Retained (M)72.1772.1772.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.87-19.92-11.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.3052.2560.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)634.84634.84634.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate4.41%5.41%6.41%
Fair Value$9.87$20.58$49.41
Upside / Downside67.80%250.00%740.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)159.34167.97177.06186.65196.76207.41213.63
Payout Ratio54.71%61.77%68.82%75.88%82.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)87.17103.75121.86141.64163.19186.67197.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate4.41%5.41%6.41%
Year 1 PV (M)96.4697.3898.30
Year 2 PV (M)105.33107.36109.41
Year 3 PV (M)113.82117.12120.49
Year 4 PV (M)121.93126.67131.54
Year 5 PV (M)129.66135.99142.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,878.194,067.504,264.12
Equity Value (M)4,445.404,652.024,866.43
Shares Outstanding (M)634.84634.84634.84
Fair Value$7.00$7.33$7.67
Upside / Downside19.09%24.62%30.37%

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