DDM Analysis: 601968.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.38 - $30.14	$19.28
Multi-Stage	$3.62 - $3.96	$3.79
Blended Fair Value	$11.53
Current Price	$4.93
Upside	133.89%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.19%	5.71%	0.15	0.14	0.13	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.08	0.23
YoY Growth	-	-	8.38%	8.11%	64.54%	13.47%	14.63%	-19.81%	-7.05%	-1.21%	-64.93%	168.98%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.19%	2.63%	1.75%	1.10%	0.86%	1.35%	1.43%	1.66%	0.90%	2.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	191.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	58.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)	132.98

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	38.23	23.90	14.34
Cash Retained (M)	132.98	132.98	132.98
(-) Cash Required (M)	-38.23	-23.90	-14.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)	94.74	109.08	118.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,261.43	1,261.43	1,261.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.12	0.13	0.14
WACC / Discount Rate	7.23%	7.23%	7.23%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$7.38	$19.28	$30.14
Upside / Downside	49.74%	290.98%	511.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	191.17	203.59	216.83	230.92	245.93	261.92	269.77
Payout Ratio	30.44%	42.35%	54.26%	66.18%	78.09%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	58.19	86.23	117.66	152.81	192.04	235.73	249.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.23%	7.23%	7.23%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	79.66	80.41	81.17
Year 2 PV (M)	100.41	102.32	104.25
Year 3 PV (M)	120.47	123.93	127.46
Year 4 PV (M)	139.86	145.24	150.77
Year 5 PV (M)	158.59	166.25	174.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,966.50	4,158.08	4,357.00
Equity Value (M)	4,565.50	4,776.25	4,994.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,261.43	1,261.43	1,261.43
Fair Value	$3.62	$3.79	$3.96
Upside / Downside	-26.59%	-23.20%	-19.68%

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Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd. (601968.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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