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Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (601398.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.74 - $19.20$15.07
Multi-Stage$20.37 - $22.37$21.35
Blended Fair Value$18.21
Current Price$7.30
Upside149.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.33%5.55%0.510.490.420.380.370.340.330.300.290.30
YoY Growth--2.87%18.76%10.99%2.42%7.41%4.93%9.61%1.71%-2.38%0.79%
Dividend Yield--7.39%9.35%9.34%7.87%6.62%6.63%5.77%4.87%6.03%6.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)366,746.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)159,072.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)207,674.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73,349.2045,843.2527,505.95
Cash Retained (M)207,674.00207,674.00207,674.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-73,349.20-45,843.25-27,505.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)134,324.80161,830.75180,168.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)348,222.20348,222.20348,222.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Fair Value$11.74$15.07$19.20
Upside / Downside60.84%106.48%163.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)366,746.00370,115.21373,515.37376,946.77380,409.69383,904.42395,421.55
Payout Ratio43.37%52.70%62.02%71.35%80.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)159,072.00195,047.42231,670.42268,949.84306,894.67345,513.98365,764.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)180,331.56182,136.35183,941.13
Year 2 PV (M)198,031.21202,014.89206,038.25
Year 3 PV (M)212,552.34218,998.18225,573.04
Year 4 PV (M)224,241.23233,353.85242,741.42
Year 5 PV (M)233,412.05245,328.30257,726.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,043,323.546,351,849.706,672,849.93
Equity Value (M)7,091,891.937,433,681.267,788,870.10
Shares Outstanding (M)348,222.20348,222.20348,222.20
Fair Value$20.37$21.35$22.37
Upside / Downside178.99%192.43%206.40%

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