DDM Analysis: 600851.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.91 - $3.48	$2.56
Multi-Stage	$1.68 - $1.84	$1.76
Blended Fair Value	$2.16
Current Price	$6.56
Upside	-67.09%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.32%	10.06%	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.08	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	43.16%	21.84%	1.37%	14.04%	-32.62%	40.56%	24.27%	-64.49%	-29.11%	336.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.06%	0.79%	0.62%	0.48%	0.41%	0.60%	0.40%	0.26%	0.68%	0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	156.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	23.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)	132.59

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.25	19.53	11.72
Cash Retained (M)	132.59	132.59	132.59
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.25	-19.53	-11.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)	101.34	113.06	120.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,206.17	1,206.17	1,206.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.10
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.10	0.11	0.12
WACC / Discount Rate	9.98%	9.98%	9.98%
Growth Rate	4.32%	5.32%	6.32%
Fair Value	$1.91	$2.56	$3.48
Upside / Downside	-70.90%	-60.98%	-46.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	156.25	164.56	173.32	182.54	192.25	202.48	208.56
Payout Ratio	15.14%	30.11%	45.08%	60.06%	75.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	23.66	49.56	78.14	109.63	144.24	182.23	192.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.98%	9.98%	9.98%
Growth Rate	4.32%	5.32%	6.32%
Year 1 PV (M)	44.63	45.06	45.48
Year 2 PV (M)	63.38	64.60	65.83
Year 3 PV (M)	80.08	82.40	84.77
Year 4 PV (M)	94.89	98.58	102.38
Year 5 PV (M)	107.96	113.23	118.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,636.43	1,716.38	1,799.43
Equity Value (M)	2,027.36	2,120.25	2,216.60
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,206.17	1,206.17	1,206.17
Fair Value	$1.68	$1.76	$1.84
Upside / Downside	-74.38%	-73.20%	-71.99%

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Shanghai Haixin Group Co., Ltd. (600851.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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