DDM Analysis: 600827.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.71 - $0.97	$0.84
Multi-Stage	$2.42 - $2.68	$2.55
Blended Fair Value	$1.69
Current Price	$8.98
Upside	-81.13%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-4.53%	-3.98%	0.27	0.21	0.25	0.24	0.20	0.34	0.32	0.33	0.07	0.37
YoY Growth	-	-	27.82%	-15.74%	3.88%	22.30%	-42.04%	4.63%	-1.63%	343.93%	-79.92%	-8.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.94%	2.35%	1.92%	2.22%	1.11%	4.35%	3.13%	3.03%	0.46%	2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	242.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	239.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3.42

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	48.56	30.35	18.21
Cash Retained (M)	3.42	3.42	3.42
(-) Cash Required (M)	-48.56	-30.35	-18.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-45.13	-26.93	-14.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,767.89	1,767.89	1,767.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.11	0.12	0.13
WACC / Discount Rate	6.18%	6.18%	6.18%
Growth Rate	-8.11%	-7.11%	-6.11%
Fair Value	$0.71	$0.84	$0.97
Upside / Downside	-92.13%	-90.64%	-89.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	242.78	225.53	209.50	194.62	180.79	167.94	172.98
Payout Ratio	98.59%	96.87%	95.15%	93.44%	91.72%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	239.35	218.47	199.35	181.84	165.81	151.15	160.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.18%	6.18%	6.18%
Growth Rate	-8.11%	-7.11%	-6.11%
Year 1 PV (M)	203.54	205.76	207.97
Year 2 PV (M)	173.03	176.82	180.65
Year 3 PV (M)	147.05	151.90	156.86
Year 4 PV (M)	124.92	130.45	136.16
Year 5 PV (M)	106.09	111.99	118.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,531.47	3,727.85	3,932.86
Equity Value (M)	4,286.11	4,504.77	4,732.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,767.89	1,767.89	1,767.89
Fair Value	$2.42	$2.55	$2.68
Upside / Downside	-73.00%	-71.62%	-70.19%

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Shanghai Bailian (Group) Co., Ltd. (600827.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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