Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tibet Tourism Co.,Ltd (600749.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.25 - $1.94$1.57
Multi-Stage$1.74 - $1.91$1.82
Blended Fair Value$1.69
Current Price$18.43
Upside-90.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.51%-8.16%0.040.040.030.040.020.060.030.060.000.10
YoY Growth---3.10%27.84%-17.22%58.92%-58.48%118.71%-53.59%0.00%-100.00%2.83%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.37%0.25%0.28%0.22%0.72%0.23%0.37%0.00%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.843.652.19
Cash Retained (M)24.0424.0424.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.84-3.65-2.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.2020.3921.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)223.04223.04223.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate0.43%1.43%2.43%
Fair Value$1.25$1.57$1.94
Upside / Downside-93.21%-91.48%-89.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.2029.6230.0430.4730.9031.3432.28
Payout Ratio17.67%32.14%46.60%61.07%75.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.169.5214.0018.6123.3428.2129.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate0.43%1.43%2.43%
Year 1 PV (M)8.668.758.83
Year 2 PV (M)11.5911.8212.05
Year 3 PV (M)14.0114.4414.87
Year 4 PV (M)16.0016.6417.31
Year 5 PV (M)17.5918.4819.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)319.48335.70352.58
Equity Value (M)387.32405.83425.05
Shares Outstanding (M)223.04223.04223.04
Fair Value$1.74$1.82$1.91
Upside / Downside-90.58%-90.13%-89.66%

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