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Definitive Analysis

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Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial Group Co.,Ltd (600738.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.15 - $17.93$16.77
Multi-Stage$42.11 - $47.20$44.60
Blended Fair Value$30.68
Current Price$4.97
Upside517.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-48.59%2.42%0.070.050.140.050.072.000.620.140.030.02
YoY Growth--38.80%-62.07%194.33%-34.42%-96.46%222.41%354.55%432.40%31.59%-65.56%
Dividend Yield--1.48%1.19%1.83%0.87%1.14%34.88%7.62%1.74%0.28%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2010.126.07
Cash Retained (M)55.6155.6155.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.20-10.12-6.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.4145.4949.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)736.03736.03736.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate-34.51%-34.51%-34.51%
Growth Rate-13.92%-12.92%-11.92%
Fair Value$15.15$16.77$17.93
Upside / Downside204.92%237.38%260.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.9970.5261.4153.4746.5640.5541.76
Payout Ratio31.33%43.07%54.80%66.53%78.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.3830.3733.6535.5836.4436.4938.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-34.51%-34.51%-34.51%
Growth Rate-13.92%-12.92%-11.92%
Year 1 PV (M)45.8546.3846.91
Year 2 PV (M)76.6878.4780.28
Year 3 PV (M)122.37126.68131.09
Year 4 PV (M)189.20198.15207.41
Year 5 PV (M)285.97302.97320.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,273.0032,072.8033,957.21
Equity Value (M)30,993.0632,825.4534,743.67
Shares Outstanding (M)736.03736.03736.03
Fair Value$42.11$44.60$47.20
Upside / Downside747.25%797.34%849.78%

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