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Lao Feng Xiang Co., Ltd. (600612.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.55 - $96.77$68.25
Multi-Stage$76.49 - $83.88$80.11
Blended Fair Value$74.18
Current Price$50.08
Upside48.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.66%4.83%1.951.962.031.811.781.711.481.371.271.23
YoY Growth---0.52%-3.51%12.33%1.39%4.31%15.69%7.79%7.55%3.53%1.21%
Dividend Yield--3.82%2.33%3.76%4.26%3.21%4.27%3.29%3.35%3.24%3.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,611.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,114.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)496.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)322.30201.44120.86
Cash Retained (M)496.55496.55496.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-322.30-201.44-120.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.26295.12375.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)523.12523.12523.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.560.72
LTM Dividend per Share2.132.132.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.560.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.462.702.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.46%2.46%3.46%
Fair Value$49.55$68.25$96.77
Upside / Downside-1.06%36.29%93.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,611.481,651.141,691.781,733.421,776.081,819.801,874.39
Payout Ratio69.19%73.35%77.51%81.67%85.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,114.931,211.101,311.331,415.761,524.541,637.821,733.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.46%2.46%3.46%
Year 1 PV (M)1,126.011,137.101,148.20
Year 2 PV (M)1,133.531,155.981,178.66
Year 3 PV (M)1,137.811,171.791,206.43
Year 4 PV (M)1,139.141,184.721,231.65
Year 5 PV (M)1,137.791,194.981,254.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,338.2836,064.1637,858.74
Equity Value (M)40,012.5641,908.7343,878.12
Shares Outstanding (M)523.12523.12523.12
Fair Value$76.49$80.11$83.88
Upside / Downside52.73%59.97%67.49%

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