DDM Analysis: 600585.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.57 - $10.20	$8.92
Multi-Stage	$25.20 - $27.93	$26.53
Blended Fair Value	$17.73
Current Price	$23.22
Upside	-23.66%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.85%	7.14%	1.15	1.51	2.43	2.16	2.04	1.73	1.34	0.64	0.63	0.85
YoY Growth	-	-	-24.14%	-37.82%	12.26%	6.00%	18.34%	29.20%	107.49%	1.68%	-25.48%	47.73%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.72%	6.74%	8.60%	5.48%	3.99%	3.13%	3.36%	2.00%	3.05%	5.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	8,802.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,562.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,239.82

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,760.43	1,100.27	660.16
Cash Retained (M)	4,239.82	4,239.82	4,239.82
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,760.43	-1,100.27	-660.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,479.39	3,139.56	3,579.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,189.18	5,189.18	5,189.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.61	0.69
LTM Dividend per Share	0.88	0.88	0.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.61	0.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.36	1.48	1.57
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-9.85%	-8.85%	-7.85%
Fair Value	$7.57	$8.92	$10.20
Upside / Downside	-67.42%	-61.60%	-56.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	8,802.15	8,022.80	7,312.46	6,665.00	6,074.88	5,537.00	5,703.11
Payout Ratio	51.83%	59.47%	67.10%	74.73%	82.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,562.33	4,770.81	4,906.60	4,980.94	5,003.66	4,983.30	5,275.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-9.85%	-8.85%	-7.85%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,438.15	4,487.39	4,536.62
Year 2 PV (M)	4,246.21	4,340.94	4,436.72
Year 3 PV (M)	4,009.99	4,144.93	4,282.86
Year 4 PV (M)	3,747.40	3,916.47	4,091.20
Year 5 PV (M)	3,471.92	3,668.82	3,874.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)	110,842.10	117,127.95	123,695.79
Equity Value (M)	130,755.78	137,686.49	144,917.72
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,189.18	5,189.18	5,189.18
Fair Value	$25.20	$26.53	$27.93
Upside / Downside	8.52%	14.27%	20.27%

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Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited (600585.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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