DDM Analysis: 600511.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$217.83 - $530.11	$496.79
Multi-Stage	$77.13 - $84.43	$80.72
Blended Fair Value	$288.75
Current Price	$28.60
Upside	909.62%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.31%	14.64%	0.90	0.94	0.81	0.85	0.81	0.61	0.68	0.34	0.26	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	-3.83%	15.95%	-4.05%	4.03%	33.89%	-11.28%	99.09%	32.95%	131.58%	-51.62%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.03%	2.84%	2.18%	2.88%	2.40%	2.15%	2.51%	1.12%	0.77%	0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,011.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	661.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,349.96

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	402.22	251.39	150.83
Cash Retained (M)	1,349.96	1,349.96	1,349.96
(-) Cash Required (M)	-402.22	-251.39	-150.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)	947.73	1,098.57	1,199.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	754.49	754.49	754.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.26	1.46	1.59
LTM Dividend per Share	0.88	0.88	0.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.26	1.46	1.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.13	2.33	2.47
WACC / Discount Rate	6.53%	6.53%	6.53%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$217.83	$496.79	$530.11
Upside / Downside	661.65%	1,637.02%	1,753.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,011.12	2,141.84	2,281.06	2,429.33	2,587.24	2,755.41	2,838.07
Payout Ratio	32.88%	44.30%	55.73%	67.15%	78.58%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	661.16	948.84	1,271.13	1,631.30	2,032.92	2,479.87	2,625.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.53%	6.53%	6.53%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	882.29	890.66	899.02
Year 2 PV (M)	1,099.08	1,120.01	1,141.14
Year 3 PV (M)	1,311.57	1,349.22	1,387.59
Year 4 PV (M)	1,519.85	1,578.30	1,638.41
Year 5 PV (M)	1,723.96	1,807.23	1,893.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)	51,659.27	54,154.43	56,745.09
Equity Value (M)	58,196.02	60,899.85	63,704.94
Shares Outstanding (M)	754.49	754.49	754.49
Fair Value	$77.13	$80.72	$84.43
Upside / Downside	169.69%	182.22%	195.22%

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China National Medicines Corporation Ltd. (600511.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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