Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Inner Mongolia Erdos Resources Co.,ltd. (600295.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.72 - $33.54$20.45
Multi-Stage$17.99 - $19.70$18.83
Blended Fair Value$19.64
Current Price$10.18
Upside92.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.09%4.01%0.840.751.140.600.570.450.490.460.460.48
YoY Growth--10.94%-33.78%88.52%6.06%25.90%-8.23%6.24%1.88%-4.34%-15.65%
Dividend Yield--9.13%6.87%10.40%4.64%7.01%11.79%10.09%8.21%8.90%11.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,832.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,702.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)129.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)366.46229.04137.42
Cash Retained (M)129.61129.61129.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-366.46-229.04-137.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)-236.85-99.43-7.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,833.802,833.802,833.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.040.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.040.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Fair Value$13.72$20.45$33.54
Upside / Downside34.80%100.88%229.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,832.311,895.941,961.792,029.922,100.412,173.362,238.56
Payout Ratio92.93%92.34%91.76%91.17%90.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,702.701,750.731,800.051,850.681,902.661,956.022,070.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Year 1 PV (M)1,630.511,646.421,662.33
Year 2 PV (M)1,561.321,591.941,622.86
Year 3 PV (M)1,495.011,539.201,584.26
Year 4 PV (M)1,431.451,488.151,546.52
Year 5 PV (M)1,370.541,438.731,509.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,496.6245,660.8047,910.27
Equity Value (M)50,985.4553,365.2555,835.86
Shares Outstanding (M)2,833.802,833.802,833.80
Fair Value$17.99$18.83$19.70
Upside / Downside76.74%84.99%93.55%

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