DDM Analysis: 600171.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.61 - $20.47	$13.66
Multi-Stage	$7.15 - $7.80	$7.47
Blended Fair Value	$10.56
Current Price	$37.05
Upside	-71.49%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	16.28%	18.06%	0.10	0.20	0.20	0.13	0.11	0.05	0.08	0.02	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	-50.16%	0.02%	53.76%	19.44%	132.24%	-40.43%	315.32%	-20.00%	25.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.29%	1.59%	0.95%	0.67%	0.73%	0.29%	0.51%	0.13%	0.18%	0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	361.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	120.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)	240.62

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	72.25	45.15	27.09
Cash Retained (M)	240.62	240.62	240.62
(-) Cash Required (M)	-72.25	-45.15	-27.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)	168.37	195.46	213.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	709.40	709.40	709.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.28	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.17	0.17	0.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.28	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.41	0.45	0.47
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$9.61	$13.66	$20.47
Upside / Downside	-74.07%	-63.13%	-44.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	361.23	384.71	409.71	436.35	464.71	494.91	509.76
Payout Ratio	33.39%	44.71%	56.03%	67.36%	78.68%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	120.61	172.01	229.58	293.90	365.62	445.42	471.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	154.94	156.41	157.88
Year 2 PV (M)	186.27	189.82	193.40
Year 3 PV (M)	214.80	220.97	227.25
Year 4 PV (M)	240.70	249.96	259.48
Year 5 PV (M)	264.14	276.90	290.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,009.51	4,203.17	4,404.24
Equity Value (M)	5,070.37	5,297.23	5,532.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	709.40	709.40	709.40
Fair Value	$7.15	$7.47	$7.80
Upside / Downside	-80.71%	-79.85%	-78.95%

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Shanghai Belling Co., Ltd. (600171.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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