DDM Analysis: 600161.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.52 - $41.31	$23.76
Multi-Stage	$10.50 - $11.48	$10.98
Blended Fair Value	$17.37
Current Price	$19.08
Upside	-8.96%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	32.57%	5.12%	0.12	0.05	0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.07	0.10	0.05	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	162.88%	-40.19%	-4.05%	76.39%	53.88%	-56.93%	-27.26%	91.68%	-20.01%	-16.21%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.61%	0.21%	0.38%	0.48%	0.21%	0.14%	0.57%	0.90%	0.45%	0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,316.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	197.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,119.03

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	263.23	164.52	98.71
Cash Retained (M)	1,119.03	1,119.03	1,119.03
(-) Cash Required (M)	-263.23	-164.52	-98.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)	855.80	954.51	1,020.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,993.85	1,993.85	1,993.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.43	0.48	0.51
LTM Dividend per Share	0.10	0.10	0.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.43	0.48	0.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.53	0.58	0.61
WACC / Discount Rate	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$15.52	$23.76	$41.31
Upside / Downside	-18.64%	24.53%	116.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,316.13	1,401.68	1,492.79	1,589.82	1,693.16	1,803.21	1,857.31
Payout Ratio	14.98%	29.98%	44.99%	59.99%	75.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	197.10	420.24	671.54	953.74	1,269.79	1,622.89	1,718.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	381.61	385.22	388.84
Year 2 PV (M)	553.75	564.30	574.95
Year 3 PV (M)	714.16	734.66	755.55
Year 4 PV (M)	863.42	896.62	930.78
Year 5 PV (M)	1,002.08	1,050.48	1,100.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)	17,422.10	18,263.60	19,137.30
Equity Value (M)	20,937.12	21,894.89	22,888.15
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,993.85	1,993.85	1,993.85
Fair Value	$10.50	$10.98	$11.48
Upside / Downside	-44.96%	-42.45%	-39.84%

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Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Co., Ltd. (600161.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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