DDM Analysis: 600106.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.68 - $0.90	$0.79
Multi-Stage	$2.47 - $2.75	$2.61
Blended Fair Value	$1.70
Current Price	$6.31
Upside	-73.08%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.75%	4.50%	0.10	0.05	0.06	0.05	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.07	0.05	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	109.80%	-20.69%	11.54%	-14.63%	10.00%	-13.29%	-4.59%	30.67%	-8.54%	-9.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.86%	0.75%	1.23%	1.14%	2.30%	2.30%	1.99%	2.28%	0.96%	0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	229.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	89.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)	140.67

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	45.96	28.73	17.24
Cash Retained (M)	140.67	140.67	140.67
(-) Cash Required (M)	-45.96	-28.73	-17.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)	94.71	111.95	123.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,286.01	1,286.01	1,286.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.07	0.09	0.10
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.07	0.09	0.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.16	0.17
WACC / Discount Rate	6.07%	6.07%	6.07%
Growth Rate	-12.42%	-11.42%	-10.42%
Fair Value	$0.68	$0.79	$0.90
Upside / Downside	-89.27%	-87.45%	-85.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	229.81	203.57	180.33	159.74	141.50	125.35	129.11
Payout Ratio	38.79%	49.03%	59.27%	69.51%	79.76%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	89.14	99.81	106.88	111.04	112.86	112.81	119.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.07%	6.07%	6.07%
Growth Rate	-12.42%	-11.42%	-10.42%
Year 1 PV (M)	93.03	94.10	95.16
Year 2 PV (M)	92.86	95.00	97.15
Year 3 PV (M)	89.93	93.04	96.23
Year 4 PV (M)	85.19	89.15	93.25
Year 5 PV (M)	79.38	84.01	88.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,735.10	2,894.85	3,061.98
Equity Value (M)	3,175.50	3,350.15	3,532.63
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,286.01	1,286.01	1,286.01
Fair Value	$2.47	$2.61	$2.75
Upside / Downside	-60.87%	-58.72%	-56.47%

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Chongqing road & bridge co.,ltd (600106.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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