DDM Analysis: 600095.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.84 - $3.19	$2.42
Multi-Stage	$3.29 - $3.62	$3.45
Blended Fair Value	$2.93
Current Price	$13.18
Upside	-77.75%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-4.14%	32.11%	0.16	0.19	0.26	0.18	0.11	0.19	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-15.45%	-28.59%	43.52%	68.17%	-44.45%	3,052.14%	3.23%	17.52%	-24.12%	-31.09%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.07%	2.68%	2.72%	2.18%	1.27%	1.88%	0.12%	0.09%	0.04%	0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	405.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	201.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)	203.89

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	81.06	50.66	30.40
Cash Retained (M)	203.89	203.89	203.89
(-) Cash Required (M)	-81.06	-50.66	-30.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)	122.83	153.23	173.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,851.66	2,851.66	2,851.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.11	0.12	0.13
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	0.30%	1.30%	2.30%
Fair Value	$1.84	$2.42	$3.19
Upside / Downside	-86.08%	-81.67%	-75.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	405.31	410.56	415.88	421.27	426.73	432.26	445.23
Payout Ratio	49.70%	57.76%	65.82%	73.88%	81.94%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	201.42	237.13	273.72	311.23	349.66	389.03	411.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	0.30%	1.30%	2.30%
Year 1 PV (M)	220.44	222.63	224.83
Year 2 PV (M)	236.55	241.29	246.07
Year 3 PV (M)	250.03	257.58	265.28
Year 4 PV (M)	261.13	271.70	282.59
Year 5 PV (M)	270.08	283.82	298.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,146.76	8,561.08	8,992.09
Equity Value (M)	9,384.98	9,838.10	10,308.97
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,851.66	2,851.66	2,851.66
Fair Value	$3.29	$3.45	$3.62
Upside / Downside	-75.03%	-73.82%	-72.57%

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Xiangcai Co.,Ltd (600095.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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