DDM Analysis: 600084.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.04 - $0.06	$0.05
Multi-Stage	$0.08 - $0.09	$0.08
Blended Fair Value	$0.07
Current Price	$5.39
Upside	-98.76%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-45.59%	-45.79%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.05	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-85.06%	13.10%	-38.74%	-48.15%	-14.42%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.20%	0.95%	0.38%	0.47%	1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	16.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)	15.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.28	2.05	1.23
Cash Retained (M)	15.23	15.23	15.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.28	-2.05	-1.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)	11.96	13.18	14.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,141.26	1,141.26	1,141.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.01	0.01	0.01
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	-13.10%	-12.10%	-11.10%
Fair Value	$0.04	$0.05	$0.06
Upside / Downside	-99.20%	-99.07%	-98.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	16.38	14.40	12.65	11.12	9.78	8.59	8.85
Payout Ratio	6.99%	23.59%	40.20%	56.80%	73.40%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.15	3.40	5.09	6.32	7.18	7.74	8.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	-13.10%	-12.10%	-11.10%
Year 1 PV (M)	3.05	3.09	3.12
Year 2 PV (M)	4.11	4.21	4.30
Year 3 PV (M)	4.59	4.75	4.92
Year 4 PV (M)	4.69	4.91	5.14
Year 5 PV (M)	4.54	4.81	5.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)	69.13	73.20	77.46
Equity Value (M)	90.12	94.97	100.04
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,141.26	1,141.26	1,141.26
Fair Value	$0.08	$0.08	$0.09
Upside / Downside	-98.53%	-98.46%	-98.37%

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Citic Guoan Wine CO.,LTD (600084.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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