DDM Analysis: 600039.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$80.97 - $175.57	$164.54
Multi-Stage	$26.53 - $29.04	$27.76
Blended Fair Value	$96.15
Current Price	$8.09
Upside	1,088.48%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	102.20%	55.15%	0.70	0.65	0.26	0.14	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	7.71%	150.86%	89.16%	360.49%	43.61%	0.00%	19.56%	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.77%	8.32%	2.61%	1.83%	0.68%	0.75%	0.73%	0.64%	0.48%	0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,736.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,996.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,740.36

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,547.35	967.09	580.26
Cash Retained (M)	4,740.36	4,740.36	4,740.36
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,547.35	-967.09	-580.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,193.01	3,773.26	4,160.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8,763.64	8,763.64	8,763.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.36	0.43	0.47
LTM Dividend per Share	0.34	0.34	0.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.36	0.43	0.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.71	0.77	0.82
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$80.97	$164.54	$175.57
Upside / Downside	900.90%	1,933.82%	2,070.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,736.76	8,239.65	8,775.23	9,345.61	9,953.08	10,600.03	10,918.03
Payout Ratio	38.73%	48.98%	59.24%	69.49%	79.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,996.40	4,036.07	5,198.24	6,494.43	7,937.17	9,540.03	10,099.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,756.97	3,792.58	3,828.19
Year 2 PV (M)	4,504.16	4,589.95	4,676.55
Year 3 PV (M)	5,238.15	5,388.51	5,541.73
Year 4 PV (M)	5,959.10	6,188.27	6,423.99
Year 5 PV (M)	6,667.20	6,989.23	7,323.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	206,361.77	216,329.12	226,677.95
Equity Value (M)	232,487.35	243,277.67	254,471.99
Shares Outstanding (M)	8,763.64	8,763.64	8,763.64
Fair Value	$26.53	$27.76	$29.04
Upside / Downside	227.92%	243.14%	258.93%

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Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.,Ltd (600039.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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