DDM Analysis: 4063.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$44,003.88 - $51,844.02	$48,585.44
Multi-Stage	$111,815.96 - $122,771.83	$117,191.34
Blended Fair Value	$82,888.39
Current Price	$4,772.00
Upside	1,636.97%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	18.56%	17.00%	103.34	106.63	98.62	60.82	46.15	44.12	37.68	26.91	24.73	22.57
YoY Growth	-	-	-3.09%	8.13%	62.15%	31.79%	4.59%	17.09%	40.06%	8.81%	9.54%	5.04%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.17%	1.71%	2.07%	1.99%	1.24%	1.75%	1.83%	1.36%	1.21%	1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	516,429.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	103,800.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	412,629.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	103,285.80	64,553.63	38,732.18
Cash Retained (M)	412,629.00	412,629.00	412,629.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-103,285.80	-64,553.63	-38,732.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)	309,343.20	348,075.38	373,896.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,981.03	1,981.03	1,981.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	156.15	175.70	188.74
LTM Dividend per Share	52.40	52.40	52.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share	156.15	175.70	188.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend	208.55	228.10	241.13
WACC / Discount Rate	-21.57%	-21.57%	-21.57%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$44,003.88	$48,585.44	$51,844.02
Upside / Downside	822.13%	918.14%	986.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	516,429.00	549,996.89	585,746.68	623,820.22	664,368.53	707,552.49	728,779.06
Payout Ratio	20.10%	34.08%	48.06%	62.04%	76.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	103,800.00	187,437.04	281,508.34	387,016.99	505,052.38	636,797.24	674,120.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-21.57%	-21.57%	-21.57%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	236,747.22	238,991.27	241,235.32
Year 2 PV (M)	449,107.41	457,661.64	466,296.58
Year 3 PV (M)	779,863.26	802,250.33	825,061.79
Year 4 PV (M)	1,285,447.48	1,334,882.16	1,385,729.16
Year 5 PV (M)	2,047,144.79	2,146,022.65	2,248,684.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)	216,713,022.12	227,180,342.12	238,048,271.10
Equity Value (M)	221,511,332.28	232,160,150.18	243,215,278.74
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,981.03	1,981.03	1,981.03
Fair Value	$111,815.96	$117,191.34	$122,771.83
Upside / Downside	2,243.17%	2,355.81%	2,472.75%

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Financial Statements

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Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. (4063.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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