DDM Analysis: 3939.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.12 - $19.82	$12.10
Multi-Stage	$5.70 - $6.23	$5.96
Blended Fair Value	$9.03
Current Price	$7.15
Upside	26.26%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	19.12%	0.07	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	204.33%	-0.99%	238.57%	28.98%	0.00%	-100.00%	833.33%	-62.50%	-50.00%	-63.47%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.54%	2.44%	5.30%	1.74%	1.13%	0.00%	2.07%	0.20%	0.55%	0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,364.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	334.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,029.63

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	272.88	170.55	102.33
Cash Retained (M)	1,029.63	1,029.63	1,029.63
(-) Cash Required (M)	-272.88	-170.55	-102.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)	756.75	859.08	927.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,667.96	3,667.96	3,667.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.23	0.25
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.23	0.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.30	0.33	0.34
WACC / Discount Rate	9.37%	9.37%	9.37%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$8.12	$12.10	$19.82
Upside / Downside	13.58%	69.17%	177.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,364.42	1,453.10	1,547.55	1,648.14	1,755.27	1,869.37	1,925.45
Payout Ratio	24.54%	37.63%	50.72%	63.81%	76.91%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	334.78	546.79	784.95	1,051.76	1,349.93	1,682.43	1,781.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.37%	9.37%	9.37%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	495.27	499.97	504.66
Year 2 PV (M)	644.00	656.27	668.65
Year 3 PV (M)	781.59	804.03	826.89
Year 4 PV (M)	908.65	943.60	979.54
Year 5 PV (M)	1,025.76	1,075.30	1,126.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)	17,058.00	17,881.91	18,737.35
Equity Value (M)	20,913.27	21,861.07	22,843.83
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,667.96	3,667.96	3,667.96
Fair Value	$5.70	$5.96	$6.23
Upside / Downside	-20.26%	-16.64%	-12.90%

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Wanguo Gold Group Limited (3939.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener