Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Keck Seng (Malaysia) Berhad (3476.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.57 - $22.72$15.08
Multi-Stage$9.98 - $10.94$10.45
Blended Fair Value$12.77
Current Price$5.73
Upside122.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS8.45%0.00%0.150.140.100.000.000.100.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7.14%40.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.66%2.43%2.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)202.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)184.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.5925.3715.22
Cash Retained (M)184.98184.98184.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.59-25.37-15.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)144.39159.61169.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)359.30359.30359.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.440.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.440.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Fair Value$10.57$15.08$22.72
Upside / Downside84.54%163.21%296.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)202.95212.40222.30232.66243.50254.85262.49
Payout Ratio8.85%25.08%41.31%57.54%73.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.9753.2891.84133.87179.63229.36242.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Year 1 PV (M)48.8249.2949.76
Year 2 PV (M)77.1178.6080.11
Year 3 PV (M)103.00106.01109.08
Year 4 PV (M)126.64131.60136.70
Year 5 PV (M)148.17155.46163.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,082.123,233.683,391.14
Equity Value (M)3,585.853,754.643,929.82
Shares Outstanding (M)359.30359.30359.30
Fair Value$9.98$10.45$10.94
Upside / Downside74.17%82.37%90.88%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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