Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Asia Vital Components Co., Ltd. (3017.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$595.66 - $1,329.68$860.96
Multi-Stage$429.74 - $469.32$449.17
Blended Fair Value$655.07
Current Price$743.00
Upside-11.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.00%34.23%6.764.823.832.491.160.891.161.070.890.89
YoY Growth--40.12%26.05%53.57%115.38%30.00%-23.08%8.33%20.00%0.00%150.00%
Dividend Yield--1.49%0.87%2.71%2.16%1.72%2.99%3.35%3.61%3.44%3.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,872.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,683.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,189.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,374.451,484.03890.42
Cash Retained (M)9,189.099,189.099,189.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,374.45-1,484.03-890.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,814.647,705.058,298.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.17397.17397.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share17.1619.4020.89
LTM Dividend per Share6.766.766.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share17.1619.4020.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend23.9126.1627.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$595.66$860.96$1,329.68
Upside / Downside-19.83%15.88%78.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,872.2612,643.9513,465.8114,341.0915,273.2616,266.0216,754.00
Payout Ratio22.60%36.08%49.56%63.04%76.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,683.174,561.976,673.689,040.6411,687.1114,639.4215,497.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,118.214,157.254,196.28
Year 2 PV (M)5,438.485,542.075,646.64
Year 3 PV (M)6,650.706,841.627,036.16
Year 4 PV (M)7,761.258,059.728,366.72
Year 5 PV (M)8,776.159,200.059,640.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)137,935.77144,598.12151,515.45
Equity Value (M)170,680.57178,398.82186,401.41
Shares Outstanding (M)397.17397.17397.17
Fair Value$429.74$449.17$469.32
Upside / Downside-42.16%-39.55%-36.83%

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