DDM Analysis: 301616.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.51 - $29.17	$24.78
Multi-Stage	$30.29 - $33.32	$31.77
Blended Fair Value	$28.28
Current Price	$51.71
Upside	-45.32%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.27%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	199.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	196.06

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	39.93	24.96	14.97
Cash Retained (M)	196.06	196.06	196.06
(-) Cash Required (M)	-39.93	-24.96	-14.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)	156.13	171.11	181.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	65.00	65.00	65.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.40	2.63	2.79
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.40	2.63	2.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.46	2.69	2.84
WACC / Discount Rate	9.74%	9.74%	9.74%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$20.51	$24.78	$29.17
Upside / Downside	-60.33%	-52.08%	-43.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	199.66	197.67	195.69	193.73	191.80	189.88	195.57
Payout Ratio	1.80%	19.44%	37.08%	54.72%	72.36%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3.60	38.43	72.57	106.01	138.78	170.89	180.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.74%	9.74%	9.74%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	34.67	35.02	35.37
Year 2 PV (M)	59.05	60.26	61.48
Year 3 PV (M)	77.81	80.22	82.67
Year 4 PV (M)	91.89	95.70	99.62
Year 5 PV (M)	102.06	107.38	112.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,603.23	1,686.72	1,773.64
Equity Value (M)	1,968.71	2,065.29	2,165.70
Shares Outstanding (M)	65.00	65.00	65.00
Fair Value	$30.29	$31.77	$33.32
Upside / Downside	-41.43%	-38.55%	-35.57%

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Zhejiang Huaye Plastics Machinery Co., Ltd. (301616.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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