Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Han's CNC Technology Co., Ltd. (301200.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.81 - $19.51$15.95
Multi-Stage$16.07 - $17.59$16.81
Blended Fair Value$16.38
Current Price$97.56
Upside-83.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-52.37%0.00%0.012.840.420.370.000.360.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---99.69%576.84%12.16%0.00%-100.00%14,335.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.02%8.19%0.96%0.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)589.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)173.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)416.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)117.9773.7344.24
Cash Retained (M)416.24416.24416.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-117.97-73.73-44.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)298.27342.51372.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)421.43421.43421.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.810.88
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.810.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.221.29
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate1.13%2.13%3.13%
Fair Value$12.81$15.95$19.51
Upside / Downside-86.87%-83.65%-80.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)589.86602.43615.28628.39641.79655.47675.13
Payout Ratio29.43%41.55%53.66%65.77%77.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)173.62250.29330.16413.32499.87589.92624.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate1.13%2.13%3.13%
Year 1 PV (M)225.37227.59229.82
Year 2 PV (M)267.67272.99278.36
Year 3 PV (M)301.71310.75319.96
Year 4 PV (M)328.55341.73355.32
Year 5 PV (M)349.12366.72385.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,299.075,566.295,844.18
Equity Value (M)6,771.477,086.077,412.68
Shares Outstanding (M)421.43421.43421.43
Fair Value$16.07$16.81$17.59
Upside / Downside-83.53%-82.77%-81.97%

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