DDM Analysis: 301138.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.25 - $34.86	$24.07
Multi-Stage	$13.20 - $14.43	$13.80
Blended Fair Value	$18.94
Current Price	$35.98
Upside	-47.37%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	14.79%	0.00%	0.50	1.00	0.60	0.00	0.21	0.25	0.14	0.36	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-50.00%	66.67%	0.00%	-100.00%	-16.96%	79.45%	-61.08%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.74%	3.61%	2.29%	0.00%	0.26%	0.31%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	118.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	106.03

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	23.61	14.75	8.85
Cash Retained (M)	106.03	106.03	106.03
(-) Cash Required (M)	-23.61	-14.75	-8.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	82.43	91.28	97.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	120.00	120.00	120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.69	0.76	0.81
LTM Dividend per Share	0.10	0.10	0.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.69	0.76	0.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.79	0.86	0.91
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	5.17%	6.17%	7.17%
Fair Value	$17.25	$24.07	$34.86
Upside / Downside	-52.05%	-33.11%	-3.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	118.03	125.32	133.05	141.26	149.98	159.24	164.02
Payout Ratio	10.17%	26.13%	42.10%	58.07%	74.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12.00	32.75	56.01	82.03	111.04	143.31	151.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	5.17%	6.17%	7.17%
Year 1 PV (M)	29.50	29.78	30.06
Year 2 PV (M)	45.45	46.32	47.20
Year 3 PV (M)	59.95	61.68	63.44
Year 4 PV (M)	73.11	75.93	78.83
Year 5 PV (M)	85.00	89.11	93.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,291.19	1,353.75	1,418.72
Equity Value (M)	1,584.20	1,656.57	1,731.63
Shares Outstanding (M)	120.00	120.00	120.00
Fair Value	$13.20	$13.80	$14.43
Upside / Downside	-63.31%	-61.63%	-59.89%

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Guangzhou Huayan Precision Machinery Co.,Ltd. (301138.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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