DDM Analysis: 301005.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.73 - $1.06	$0.89
Multi-Stage	$1.23 - $1.35	$1.29
Blended Fair Value	$1.09
Current Price	$49.60
Upside	-97.80%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	5.08%	0.00%	0.10	0.19	0.21	0.20	0.27	0.08	0.11	0.20	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-46.31%	-10.00%	8.05%	-26.04%	231.74%	-23.10%	-45.97%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.32%	0.72%	1.18%	0.89%	1.07%	0.32%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	13.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	7.85

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.71	1.69	1.02
Cash Retained (M)	7.85	7.85	7.85
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.71	-1.69	-1.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5.14	6.16	6.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	132.96	132.96	132.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.08	0.09	0.09
WACC / Discount Rate	8.88%	8.88%	8.88%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$0.73	$0.89	$1.06
Upside / Downside	-98.52%	-98.20%	-97.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	13.55	13.42	13.28	13.15	13.02	12.89	13.27
Payout Ratio	42.05%	51.64%	61.23%	70.82%	80.41%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5.70	6.93	8.13	9.31	10.47	11.60	12.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.88%	8.88%	8.88%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	6.30	6.36	6.43
Year 2 PV (M)	6.72	6.86	7.00
Year 3 PV (M)	7.00	7.21	7.43
Year 4 PV (M)	7.15	7.45	7.75
Year 5 PV (M)	7.20	7.58	7.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)	129.61	136.36	143.38
Equity Value (M)	163.98	171.82	179.97
Shares Outstanding (M)	132.96	132.96	132.96
Fair Value	$1.23	$1.29	$1.35
Upside / Downside	-97.51%	-97.39%	-97.27%

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Essence Fastening Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (301005.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener